Even with a tell all book, the press and democrats in Congress are constantly barraging Trump. Why are Trump's poll numbers rising?
Well, the u201ctell all book,u201d just came out, so polls donu2019t reflect it, though I would guess that most people who think favourably of the President will disregard it as high school level gossip, which is about all it sounds like to me, from the bits Iu2019ve seen quoted.As for the rest, hereu2019s the problem that the press and Democrats donu2019t seem to understand u2023 there is spin, and there is reality. For people on the edges of politics (call them u201cTrumpu2019s baseu201d on the right and u201cTrump hatersu201d on the left,) the difference between spin and reality donu2019t matter. They believe what they want to believe, dismiss anything that disagrees with what they believe, and then surround themselves in an echo chamber that reinforces their world view.The Presidentu2019s approval ratings to date have, largely fallen along these lines u2023 the only people who approve of him are those in his base, who donu2019t care about spin and reality, theyu2019re supporting him, regardless of what heu2019s doing, saying or (especially,) what the press and Democrats are saying about him.For some of those who are not on the edges of politics, their opinion is not a result of spin, but of reality, and thatu2019s why his numbers are edging up, and are likely to continue to do so. If the general consensus of the press is that the Trump administration is a dumpster fire and weu2019re all going to die, but the reality is that things are carrying on about the same as they were a year ago, rational people are going to start questioning the general consensus of the press, theyu2019re not going to say u201cIu2019m going to deny reality, because NBC News is telling me that weu2019re on the edge of the precipice.u201dA perfect example is the recent tax reform bill, passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. How many times did you hear Senator Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi decrying the bill, because u201cIt will raise taxes on the middle class to give the wealthy a tax break!u201d Every analysis that I saw on NBC News said pretty much the same thing.But the reality is that the tax bill does cut the taxes on everyone who pays Federal income tax. Schumer, Pelosi and NBC werenu2019t lying u2023 taxes on the middle class (actually, everyone) will go upu2023 in ten years, when this tax cut expires. Thatu2019s assuming that Congress doesnu2019t act to make the tax cuts permanent, something Iu2019m sure Republicans would be in favour of, but do you think that Democrats would agree? In which case, who is really raising your taxes, Republicans? Or Democrats?There is one group of people who will pay more in taxes in 2023. wealthy people in states with high state income taxes, and people who have mortgages over $750,000. Now, is that the fault of the tax reform? Or is it the fault of states that over tax their citizens and people who choose to buy super expensive homes?And hereu2019s where the press and Democrats are going to lose this argument: in the US, we actually pay our taxes throughout the year. When you file your taxes at the end of the year (1040EZ, 1040A, etc) what you are actually doing is filing a reconciliation between what you paid over the course of the year and what you should have paid.Starting in February, employers will start withholding Federal income taxes, using the new withholding tables, and everyone (even the wealthy people cited above who are going to pay higher taxes,) who pays Federal income tax will see an increase in their take home pay, the amount that gets deposited in their bank account. Whether thatu2019s $10, $100 or $500, it is a tangible amount that people can save or spend, both of which help the economy.But the kicker is that a lot of those people in the middle are going to look at that and say u201cHey, the press and the Democrats kept saying that my taxes were going to go up, but they didnu2019t, they went down!u201d with the inevitable conclusion that they were lied to, which they were. During the 2023 midterms, unless the economy really goes in the tank, which is unlikely, every single incumbent Democrat is going to hear the message u201cThey voted against cutting your taxes!u201d over and over (since there were zero Democratic votes,) and a lot of people, who did notice that they got a tax cut, are going to respond to that.I really wondered, in the run up to the vote on the tax reform bill, why NBC, Schumer and Pelosi kept hammering a point that was a) so obviously false and b) which would be so evidently shown to be so by everyoneu2019s paychecks a couple of months later. I still have no idea why they did that, it is so patently stupid.My guess is that, unless something drastic happens (war, economy tanks, evidence of actual lawbreaking comes out,) the Presidentu2019s numbers will continue to edge up over the coming year, as more and more people u201cin the middle,u201d politically, realize that theyu2019ve been lied to by the press and the Democrats.