Even with a tell all book, the press and democrats in Congress are constantly barraging Trump. Why are Trump's poll numbers rising?
Well, the “tell all book,” just came out, so polls don’t reflect it, though I would guess that most people who think favourably of the President will disregard it as high school level gossip, which is about all it sounds like to me, from the bits I’ve seen quoted.As for the rest, here’s the problem that the press and Democrats don’t seem to understand ‡ there is spin, and there is reality. For people on the edges of politics (call them “Trump’s base” on the right and “Trump haters” on the left,) the difference between spin and reality don’t matter. They believe what they want to believe, dismiss anything that disagrees with what they believe, and then surround themselves in an echo chamber that reinforces their world view.The President’s approval ratings to date have, largely fallen along these lines ‡ the only people who approve of him are those in his base, who don’t care about spin and reality, they’re supporting him, regardless of what he’s doing, saying or (especially,) what the press and Democrats are saying about him.For some of those who are not on the edges of politics, their opinion is not a result of spin, but of reality, and that’s why his numbers are edging up, and are likely to continue to do so. If the general consensus of the press is that the Trump administration is a dumpster fire and we’re all going to die, but the reality is that things are carrying on about the same as they were a year ago, rational people are going to start questioning the general consensus of the press, they’re not going to say “I’m going to deny reality, because NBC News is telling me that we’re on the edge of the precipice.”A perfect example is the recent tax reform bill, passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. How many times did you hear Senator Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi decrying the bill, because “It will raise taxes on the middle class to give the wealthy a tax break!” Every analysis that I saw on NBC News said pretty much the same thing.But the reality is that the tax bill does cut the taxes on everyone who pays Federal income tax. Schumer, Pelosi and NBC weren’t lying ‡ taxes on the middle class (actually, everyone) will go up‡ in ten years, when this tax cut expires. That’s assuming that Congress doesn’t act to make the tax cuts permanent, something I’m sure Republicans would be in favour of, but do you think that Democrats would agree? In which case, who is really raising your taxes, Republicans? Or Democrats?There is one group of people who will pay more in taxes in 2021. wealthy people in states with high state income taxes, and people who have mortgages over $750,000. Now, is that the fault of the tax reform? Or is it the fault of states that over tax their citizens and people who choose to buy super expensive homes?And here’s where the press and Democrats are going to lose this argument: in the US, we actually pay our taxes throughout the year. When you file your taxes at the end of the year (1040EZ, 1040A, etc) what you are actually doing is filing a reconciliation between what you paid over the course of the year and what you should have paid.Starting in February, employers will start withholding Federal income taxes, using the new withholding tables, and everyone (even the wealthy people cited above who are going to pay higher taxes,) who pays Federal income tax will see an increase in their take home pay, the amount that gets deposited in their bank account. Whether that’s $10, $100 or $500, it is a tangible amount that people can save or spend, both of which help the economy.But the kicker is that a lot of those people in the middle are going to look at that and say “Hey, the press and the Democrats kept saying that my taxes were going to go up, but they didn’t, they went down!” with the inevitable conclusion that they were lied to, which they were. During the 2021 midterms, unless the economy really goes in the tank, which is unlikely, every single incumbent Democrat is going to hear the message “They voted against cutting your taxes!” over and over (since there were zero Democratic votes,) and a lot of people, who did notice that they got a tax cut, are going to respond to that.I really wondered, in the run up to the vote on the tax reform bill, why NBC, Schumer and Pelosi kept hammering a point that was a) so obviously false and b) which would be so evidently shown to be so by everyone’s paychecks a couple of months later. I still have no idea why they did that, it is so patently stupid.My guess is that, unless something drastic happens (war, economy tanks, evidence of actual lawbreaking comes out,) the President’s numbers will continue to edge up over the coming year, as more and more people “in the middle,” politically, realize that they’ve been lied to by the press and the Democrats.